Issue #38: Urban Honey and the Spreadsheet of Doom

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Welcome back, everyone! This week finds me knee-deep in numbers that don't lie, no matter how much developers might wish they would. The truth is always in the proforma, folks.

Speaking of truth and excellence, I need to take a moment to send a huge congratulations to the team at the Minto Group in Calgary for their incredible win at the 2025 CHBA National Awards for Housing Excellence. Their community, "Wildflower," in Airdrie just took home the award for Best New Community at the awards bash in Victoria last week.

To the incredible team who turned that vision into reality – the development managers, site supervisors, marketing leaders, customer care experts and everyone in between – you've created something truly special.

Seeing local talent recognized on the national stage reminds me why Calgary continues to be one of the most innovative housing markets in the country.

Well-deserved recognition for years of hard work!

Connect with Charles if you are interested in having your community win such a prestigious award. He is the master.

Now, on to this week's cautionary tale of what happens when dreams collide with cold, hard financial reality...

The Cold Hard Facts: When The Numbers Kill Your Dream Project

Early in my career, a billionaire mentor gave me a piece of advice that’s never left me: “Never fall in love with a project.” I’ve repeated that line to just about anyone who would listen—because he was right. Never get blinded by the light.

SCENE: Tuesday, 10:30 AM. I'm perched on an uncomfortable metal stool in a trendy downtown coffee shop that apparently detests back support. Across from me is Victor, a bright-eyed first-time developer clutching his iPad like it contains the nuclear launch codes.

VICTOR: (excitedly swiping through architectural renderings) "So what do you think? It's going to revolutionize urban infill. Twenty micro condos, rooftop garden, EV chargers in every stall, and—get this—a community apiary on the third-floor terrace."

ME: (sipping coffee) "Bees?"

VICTOR: "Bees! Urban honey production is the next big amenity. We'll include a jar with every monthly maintenance fee statement."

ME: "Innovative. Mind if I see your proforma?"

Victor's enthusiasm falters for a microsecond. He slides his iPad across the reclaimed wood table, now displaying a colourful spreadsheet with more conditional formatting than actual numbers.

ME: (scanning) "I see you've estimated construction costs at $275 per square foot."

VICTOR: "Is that not enough? I googled 'Calgary construction costs' and that's what came up."

ME: "From what year?"

VICTOR: (checking) "2019. But inflation can't be that bad, right?"

ME: (taking a long, contemplative sip) "Remind me what site you're looking at?"

VICTOR: "That old warehouse on 10th."

ME: "With the contaminated soil from its previous life as a paint factory?"

VICTOR: (smile fading) "Contaminated?"

ME: "Victor, I want you to listen carefully. Your innovative micro-condo apiary has a few... challenges."

I pull out my own tablet and start building a quick model, turning the screen periodically so Victor can watch his dream project transform into a financial nightmare in real time.

ME: "First, construction costs. You're at least $150 per square foot low for a building with these specs in 2025. After tariffs, material shortages, and skilled labour constraints, you're looking at minimum $425 per square foot (fancy design/expensive facade)."

VICTOR: "But—"

ME: "Second, remediation. That site has been on the City's environmental watch list since 2012. You're looking at minimum $750,000 just to make the soil habitable for humans, let alone bees."

VICTOR: (visibly wilting) "I had no idea."

ME: "Third, micro condos work in Vancouver because they sell for $1,500 per square foot. Your target price of $625 per square foot doesn't support the construction cost, let alone the land and soft costs."

Victor stares into his cold coffee. I feel like I just kicked a puppy.

ME: (softening) "Look, I'm not trying to crush your dreams. I'm trying to save you from financial ruin. The difference between successful developers and bankrupt visionaries isn't creativity—it's realistic numbers and proper due diligence."

VICTOR: "So what would make it work?"

ME: "Let's rebuild this together. First, we need to find you a site without an environmental history. Second, we need to simplify the design to get costs down. Third, we need to validate your pricing assumptions with actual market comps."

VICTOR: "And the bees?"

ME: "Maybe save the apiary for your second project."

We spend the next hour restructuring his concept. By the time we finish, the project has morphed from twenty micro condos with questionable economics to twelve right-sized units with solid margins. No bees, but a fighting chance at profitability.

As Victor packs up his iPad, I can see his initial disappointment has been replaced with something more valuable: clarity.

VICTOR: "Thanks for being straight with me. My architect and my friends all told me how amazing this was going to be. Nobody mentioned the numbers might not work."

ME: "That's because architects don't carry the financial risk, and friends don't want to crush your dreams. But remember this: the bank won't fund your vision—they'll fund your numbers."

VICTOR: "So what would you do if you were me?"

ME: "I'd start by accepting that your first development won't be revolutionary. It'll be a learning experience. Get one solid, simple project under your belt that actually makes money. Then you can gradually add complexity—and maybe even bees—to future projects."

Three days later, Victor texts me a photo of a modest fourplex site in an up-and-coming neighbourhood, with a message: "No environmental issues, zoning already in place, ran the numbers three times. What do you think?"

Progress.

The First-Time Developer Reality Check: A 7-Point Inspection

Over the years, I've watched rookie developers make the same mistakes. Here's a quick reality check to save you from the most common pitfalls:

1. Construction Costs Are Higher Than You Think: Whatever number you've budgeted, add 20%. Then add another 10% contingency. Today's construction environment is unforgiving, with material costs fluctuating wildly and skilled trades in short supply. If your project only works with optimistic construction estimates, it doesn't work.

2. Simple Projects Succeed, Complex Projects Fail: Your first development should be boring. Boring is predictable. Predictable is financeable. Financeable gets built. Save the architectural awards for your fifth project, after you've built a track record and capital base.

3. Soft Costs Will Blow Your Budget: First-timers routinely underestimate the cost of everything that isn't physical construction. Legal, accounting, architectural, engineering, permitting, marketing, financing costs—these can easily reach 25-30% of your hard costs. Budget accordingly.

4. Your Timeline is Wrong: Whatever timeline you've projected, double it. Permitting takes longer than expected. Construction takes longer than expected. Sales take longer than expected. See the pattern? Your carrying costs increase with every delay, potentially turning a profitable project into a loss.

5. The Market Doesn't Care About Your Vision: You might be passionate about sustainable micro-housing with questionable amenities, but if the market in your area wants three-bedroom townhomes with private yards, guess what's going to sell? Market research isn't optional—it's fundamental.

6. Relationships Matter More Than You Think: Development is a relationship business. Your ability to build connections with municipal staff, trades, suppliers, and potential buyers will impact everything from permitting speed to construction quality to sales velocity.

7. Your Financial Cushion Is Too Thin: Never commit all your capital to a single project. Development has too many unknown variables, and you need financial flexibility to weather unexpected challenges. If you can't afford a significant cost overrun or carrying cost extension, you can't afford to develop.

The cold, hard truth is that successful development isn't about vision—it's about execution. It's about understanding the numbers, respecting market realities, building the right relationships, and maintaining financial discipline. Master these fundamentals before you try to revolutionize the industry with your rooftop apiary.

After all, you can't change the game if you can't afford to play.

From The Trenches: Real-World Proforma Adjustments

Here's a real-world example of how dramatically different first-time developer assumptions can be from reality. These are actual numbers from a recent project assessment (anonymized to protect Victor and his bees):

When you compound these differences, you can see how a project that looks profitable on paper can quickly turn into a financial disaster in reality.

The good news? Every successful developer I know started with a simpler project than they initially dreamed of. They learned the ropes, built their network, established their credibility, and gradually tackled more complex developments as their experience and capital base grew.

Your first development shouldn't be your magnum opus—it should be your apprenticeship.

Each week, I test tools, AI prompts, and experiments so you don’t have to.
From zoning hacks to time-saving workflows, here’s one tech-powered insight to help you move faster, think clearer, and waste less money.

Meta OS: Stop Asking AI for Answers—Ask for Frameworks

(Never delegate your thinking.)

Too many smart operators are still using AI like it’s a glorified Magic 8-Ball:

That’s not strategy. That’s outsourcing your judgment.

AI’s real superpower isn’t giving you answers—it’s helping you build better frameworks. It’s your second brain, your stress-test engine, your devil’s advocate. It’s how you think faster, deeper, and clearer under pressure.

So don’t ask it what to do.

Ask it how to think.

Here are 10 ways to turn AI into your real estate operating system—not a shortcut, but a clarity engine.

1. Strategic Planning Assistant

You’ve got a promising project. You don’t need a “yes”—you need a structured way to think through the risks.

Prompt:

2. Zoning Translator

Zoning isn’t just a rulebook—it’s a chessboard. You need a breakdown you can actually build strategy from.

Prompt:

3. Proforma Validator

You don’t want AI to rewrite your model. You want it to punch holes in your logic before your investor does.

Prompt:

4. Inbox First Draft Machine

You’re not looking for fluff. You’re looking for structure and tone that still sounds like you.

Prompt:

5. Design Brief Generator

You don’t want a sketch. You want a brief that removes all ambiguity—so your designer, Sora, or AI model actually nails it.

Prompt:

6. Pitch Deck Builder

You have the story. AI helps you structure it—so you spend less time formatting and more time closing.

Prompt:

7. Partner Due Diligence Assistant

Every team looks good on paper. You want AI to tell you what’s not there.

Prompt:

8. Workflow Coach

You’re juggling Notion, Calendly, QuickBooks, and Google Drive like a circus act. You want structure—on your terms.

Prompt:

9. Government Whisperer

The goal isn’t to impress the city. It’s to get the rezoning approved without triggering alarm bells.

Prompt:

10. Self-Awareness Engine

Every good founder needs a devil’s advocate. AI will be yours—without the office drama.

Prompt:

🧠 Final Thoughts:

Don’t ask AI what to do. Ask it how to think.
Because when you delegate your thinking, you delegate your edge.

💬 Which prompt helped you think better?
Reply and tell me which one saved your deal—or changed your mind. I’ll feature the best frameworks in a future issue.

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Do you need a development co-pilot? After 30 years in the trenches, I help developers avoid expensive mistakes through strategy sessions, deal analysis, and road mapping.

Save time and money. Why navigate the development maze alone when carrying costs are eating your returns?

Hit reply with "DEVELOPMENT 911" for a no-obligation call about your project challenges, or share your biggest development headache for a free quick take.

See you next Friday.

- Greg